No action yesterday except for one Dutch and Win bet which won and happened to be number 5 in the series so therefore keeping the winning sequence going and heading towards another profitable month although they are slightly down on winners this month. I know when it gets to 4 or 5 in the series that the emails start to flow in as people start to get anxious as stakes increase and I will share some thoughts with you about my staking and long term thinking.
We love to focus on negatives, I mentioned in a past post how when I was in the states that an American sat next to me said how his first experience of England was that we moan alot and everything in the news and in our conversation is negative and I have to agree. 95% of the email I get is about people losing. However 95% of the email I get from the people in my Mentor group is not about losing but about how they are winning and how they can win more. I like to regularly send them some mental coaching articles and am preparing one this week. As such I have spoken to a few of them on the phone to see how its going etc and reports are positive. Just yesterday I spoke to a mentor member who I met at Lingfield when we had the day out, decent guy who has bet the football with me for a few years now and before mentoring my view would be his bank went up and down, now with some structure in place he reported a £12,000 increase in his bank in about 6 months, bearing in mind we have had a close season in that period. I am over the moon for him.
Why is it relevant? It is about changing his mindset and determining what he or anyone else is trying to achieve from betting.
Staking – One article I wrote early for the mentors tackled the subject of speed and greed. People want to win as much money as they can as quickly as possible. This invariably leads to too big a stakes and a loss makes a big hole. Mindset then reverts to chasing and another loss wipes out too much money but also affects mental state. I have had another mentor member this week who subscribed to a football fixed odds system, had no idea of how it would perform and started staking way over the top. He now has the dilemma that he has lost a fair bit so wants to stay at those stakes to get his money back. Any system should be started small and built up with winnings. If the system works stakes will soon increase and income will increase as a result. Steady progression will always beat greed.
I will always argue the case for progressive staking and a form of loss recovery it enables me to maximise winnings and make more than most gamblers. I have had many arguments with people about something that does not win at level stakes cannot win using loss recovery – YES IT CAN AS LONG AS IT IS MANAGED and I will prove it to anyone. Instantly the smart alecs will quote roulette, yes any form of loss recovery staking or even level staking at roulette will lose. Of course it will every spin of the wheel is set against you and the likelihood of the result is impossible to predict as the odds are constant. We should all know just because it has been 10 blacks on the trot the next spin will not necessarily be red, the odds on it being red or black are exactly the same.
However when I am making my own picks or following someone elses picks that I know works I know the odds on the outcome are in my favour. They are not the same every time, I have not lost 3 football games straight on FTS in 3 years. That is not luck as the spin of a roulette wheel it is down to my research to get the bet in my favour before it is placed.
With that information I can operate a loss recovery over a three game cycle with confidence. There will come a time when I lose but I know I am losing winnings that were not mine and that over the long term of a year I come out on top. I manage my loss recovery so it does not wipe me out and winnings will over the course of a year will always be more, even if I have a couple of losing weeks or even months.
With my Dutch and Win method it is exactly the same. I have settled on a sensible level of loss recovery based on 5 bets which I based on the regularity of the winners I have seen, and I cannot see anyway that it will not return a good 5 figure annual income. One cycle is completely irrelevant. I have encoutered 5 or 6 losing cycles over a 4 month period but almost 250 winners. All that matters come the end of the year is number of winners, minus the number of losing cycles equals profit and that is how I look at it. If it didn’t then I either tweak it or ditch it. The emails I receive are too focused on what is happening on any given day if they have 3 or 4 losers. It does not matter in the slightest. Yes any form of loss recovery will mean somewhere you will place bets that make you uncomfortable but if it is thought out it is irrelevant. The money I have won from Dutch and Win is winnings, it is not mine, I didnt have it 4 months ago so if I give a bit back in a losing cycle so be it, all that matters in anything I do is as I say I started with “x” amount have bet it for a year, I monitor performance regularly and as such I now have “xxx” amount. Provided I am consistent in what I do, do not chase a loss and get too married to the monetary side and operate a process I will win. The wheels would have to come right off and then obviously I would notice the downturn in performance and adjust what I do, reduce stakes for example until it picks up, but I cannot lose.
On Saturday after the FTS game where Rangers were reduced to 10 men I had 3 people email me and unsubscribe from selections, it is crap it does not work etc, we all know what happened on Sunday, a nice winner to get back on track. Losers will always happen it is getting into the long term view that is important. It is impossible for me at lose at FTS, completely inpossible, as I now feel it is with Dutch and Win and the other betting systems in my portfolio. Not because I am better than anyone else, I assure you I am not but I have learned to look long term and bet accordingly to what I know works and one days result does not matter. I said last week a months review of something is no true reflection. review Dutch and Win in May and you ditch it instantly, review it in August when it would have made over £1500 without any progressive staking and you think it is great. I am sure this goes for many systems and hence you will get different opinions. Betting is all about getting through the rough spells in tact and maximising the good spells and for me a sensible form of progressive staking does that.
You will have losing days and you will get down, I hate losing but once you accept that is what happens and as long as you manage your reaction to losing and stake accordingly you have to win. The biggest battle with gambling is the mental battle, win that and you win the financial battle. Jumping from system to system after a few days will never work. You do not have to dive in, paper trade, see if there is a way of making it work, if you are then confident it can win for you start small and build up your stakes with winnings. If it is a bag of nails bin it.
There may be football this evening but any selections will be sent later as we may have some indifferent teams being fielded personel wise as it is Carling Cup.
P.S Mentor group is closed there are no membership options open.