I am following a Golf service, this will be a very simple backing/laying service with the following rules:

£1000 starting fund.

100 point bank.

Click here to view the latest results:

Any questions please E mail me @ kieranftsincome@gmail.com

 

This is the fifth week of this trial and we had a nice winner last week. We simply post the write up as received from the provider and will keep results accordingly. Kieran will be catching results up shortly.

 

Qatar Masters

 

Sergio Garcia has another excellent opportunity to record a win at the Qatar Masters and continue a great run for the System Trial having advised Brandt Snedeker at 25/1 last week. Robert Karlsson has all the attributes to win this tournament for the second time in his career. George Coetzee should be well suited to the Doha Golf Club which is the regular host of this event. Jason Day also has a game that could see him figure in this European tour event.

 

This tournament is the second leg of the Middle East Swing and although the field is not as strong as last week in Abu Dhabi seven of the top 20 players on the current world rankings are in attendance. Australia’s world number 10 Day and US Ryder Cup player Hunter Mahan are in the field. The favourite is Lee Westwood but other players are preferred at more appealing odds.

 

This is the 15th year in succession that Doha has staged this tournament. It is a long course that favours big hitters. The fairways are of average width and lead to grainy Bermuda greens which have many tricky slopes. Water is a factor on six holes and the four par fives present plenty of eagle and birdie opportunities.

 

The local Shamal wind is very important in this tournament. It could blow at different strengths from round to round so luck with the draw can be crucial. Hitting greens in regulation is not vital but distance is important. Putting is also crucial at Doha so it’s worth noting players who regularly putt well here.

 

Sergio Garcia has made the cut for the last six years in this tournament and course experience on such an exposed track is an advantage. The player formerly known as El Nino had a solid week in Abu Dhabi and he has the attributes to have another good tournament. He finished 28th on the US Tour for driving distance last year and was inside the top 50 for putting in Europe.

 

Robert Karlsson won this tournament in 2010 and has also played at the weekend in each of the last six years. He finished in the top 25 for length off the tee and putting last year. He also had a decent week in Abu Dhabi and a moderate improvement in that form should see him go close again.

 

George Coetzee has not played this tournament in his career to date. A win may be beyond him but this South African has the potential to make the top 10 payout places at this level. He excels in driving distance and putting so that should see him feel comfortable at this week’s venue.

 

Jason Day is also debuting in Qatar this week. The Australian is a class act who finished second in two major championships last year. He finished inside the top 15 for driving distance and total putts in the States last year and that combination of skills can see him compensate for a lack of course experience and make the top 5 payout places.

 

Recommendations

 

2 points back Sergio Garcia at 15.5.

1 point back Robert Karlsson at 24.0.

2 points back George Coetzee Top 10 at 4.1.

2 points back Jason Day Top 5 at 8.6.

 

Phoenix Open

 

Webb Simpson is a worthy favourite for the Phoenix Open and he can build on a solid start to the season with another high finish. Matt Kuchar has the ideal combination of skills to score well on the Scottsdale course that is the regular host of this tournament. Martin Laird can record another top 5 finish on a track well suited to his game.

 

The tournament has been held at Scottsdale since 1987. The event is known for the huge galleries and in particular the raucous atmosphere at the par 3 16th, where the crowd surrounds the entire hole from tee to green. The TPC at Scottsdale is a typical stadium course, except that it is in the desert so waste areas and bunkers are prevalent. Water is in play on several holes and the greens are above average in size.

 

Hitting the greens in regulation is a key attribute and holing an above average amount of putts is also important. However, it has generally paid to rely on course form, probably as much for experience of the extraordinary atmosphere. It is a well proven theory that players who have had a high finish in previous years perform well.

 

TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course measuring 7216 yards. Despite victories for big hitters such as Kenny Perry, JB Holmes and Phil Mickelson just eight of the 58 that finished inside the top in the last five years ranked inside the top 10 off distance off the tee in the same week.

 

Webb Simpson finished tied for 8th last year on route to only being beaten by Luke Donald in the Money List. He was 3rd in the first event of this year and hasn’t gone consecutive starts without a top 10 since June. He finished in the top 10 for greens in regulation last year and was in the top 50 for total putts.

 

Matt Kuchar is another player who excels on the greens and is also above average for hitting greens in regulation. He has made a solid start to the season and has two top 10 finishes at Scottsdale in the last three years. He has the temperament and ability to handle the crowd’s loud involvement.

 

Martin Laird finished just two shots off the pace in this tournament last year, playing his final 30 holes in a bogey free 12 under. He had an excellent start to his season by finishing second in the opening event. He played the Humana Challenge two weeks ago and hit 14 greens in regulation in each round. A continuation of that level of form can see him make the top 5 payout places.

 

Recommendations

 

2 points back Webb Simpson at 17.5.

1 point back Matt Kuchar at 26.0.

2 points back Martin Laird top 5 at 6.4.

 

 

This is the fourth week of this trial. We simply post the write up as received from the provider and will keep results accordingly. We will catch up the results after this weeks tournament.

Abu Dhabi Championship

 

The top 4 players in the world rankings and Tiger Woods head the betting for the Abu Dhabi Championship on the European Tour but three players further down the bookmaker’s lists make more appeal. Sergio Garcia has the game and course form to prosper at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club in the United Arab Emirates that hosts this event for the seventh successive year. Charl Schwartzel has all the required attributes to score well while Francesco Molinari has the ability to make the top 10 at this exalted level.

 

Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer begin their European seasons in the Gulf. McIlroy and Kaymer are single figure odds and taking those prices at this stage of the season is not recommended. Kaymer has brilliant course form, having won this event three times in the past four years. Woods makes his first appearance in the event which means he has decided to forgo the tournament in the States that he has won 6 times in the past. Top 10 world ranked players Schwartzel and Jason Day add another element to the best tournament of the year to date.

 

Hitting the greens in the correct number of shots is the key to victory and far more important than driving accuracy. Abu Dhabi is a long course even by modern standards and in the past long drivers have had an edge in terms of results so length can clearly be an advantage. The wind can be important so good shot makers who can adapt to the conditions should do well.

 

Donald is obviously going to be a factor in these conditions but at twice the odds I’m favouring Garcia this week. The player formerly known as El Nino is now at number 17 in the world rankings. He had a golden fortnight in Spain last autumn, winning twice including the well supported event at Valderrama.

 

Garcia is not massively long off the tee but still above average. One of his great skills is his iron play and he was in the top 10 for GIR last season. He has a solid record in the Open Championship so won’t be fazed if the wind does blow. Putting is a perceived weakness but he was inside the top 50 for total putts in Europe in 2011.

 

Schwartzel won the US Masters last April so is a proven winner at the highest level. He was in contention at the Volvo Golf Champions last week. He is the only player in the field who was inside the top 25 for driving distance, total putts and greens in regulation last year and that is a persuasive combination of skills for this week’s challenge.

 

Molinari has made the cut for the last six years at Abu Dhabi, without getting in contention. He has a solid set of skills for the course and clearly does enough over the first two days to make his cuts. Winning may be beyond him against such a strong field but he could well make the top 10 payout places.

 

Recommendations

 

2 points back Sergio Garcia at 26.0.

2 points back Charl Schwartzel at 29.0.

3 points back Francesco Molinari Top 10 at 5.50

 

Farmers Insurance Open

 

The tournament formerly known as the Buick Invitational returns its regular venue at Torrey Pines and course experience is the key factor in determining the players likely to contend. Nick Watney has the best overall course form of the entire field and looks to have a favourite’s chance of winning this tournament for the second time in his career. Brandt Snedeker is another player with decent course form and DA Points could make a show at attractive odds.

 

This is a long established event on the West Coast Swing in California. Players play a round at the North and South Courses over the first two days, then both weekend rounds are played at the South Course. The South Course was completely overhauled after 2001 and was lengthened significantly as part of preparations for hosting the US Open in 2008. The changes have exaggerated the difference in the relative difficulty of the two courses, with the South Course now 4-5 shots harder.

 

The most notable absentee is Tiger Woods, the six times course winner. He is playing in Abu Dhabi on the European Tour and one can only imagine that a massive appearance fee was a factor in making this decision. Phil Mickelson has solid course form but he now looks a player past his best and I wouldn’t be looking to back him after a mediocre effort last week.

 

Unless there are unusual weather conditions, which are not forecast, there’s no real advantage to the tee times. The two-tee start means rounds are usually played in similar conditions. The vast majority of the first round leaders will have played the easier North Course. It follows that if your outright selection is drawn to play the South Course first you can look to back him after round one when you are likely to find the odds are better.

 

Watney won this tournament in 2009 and has several other top 10 finishes to his name. His length off the tee should help at the South Course which is above average in length. Given a good performance on the greens another prominent effort is expected from Watney this week. He can hole putts in streaks and he hits a good run could be tough to beat.

 

Snedeker is another player who clearly relishes the playing conditions on both courses. He was just a shot behind the winner two years ago and was seven shots off the pace 12 months earlier. Putting is strength and he had a good week on the greens at the Humana Challenge last week.

 

Points is a third player with some decent course form to his name. He finished four shots or less behind the winner in 2010 and 2011 and a repeat of those efforts can see him make the top 5 payout places. He figured at the Sony Open two weeks ago and if he maintains that level of form another high finish can be expected.

 

Recommendations

 

2 points back Nick Watney at 17.0.

2 points back Brandt Snedeker at 26.0.

3 points back DA Points Top 5 at 10.0

Volvo Golf Champions

Hennie Otto has the right combination of course form and recent form to make him a leading contender for the Volvo Golf Champions on the European Tour. Nicolas Colsaerts has a good skills profile for the Fancourt Links course that hosts this event for the first time. Padraig Harrington is a more speculative selection but this proven links player can make the top 5 payout places at rewarding odds.

The event is the European Tour’s first ever tournament of champions. It is only open to European Tour players who have won an event on the previous year’s schedule and current tour members who have ten or more European Tour wins to their name.

Paul Casey won the first staging of this tournament last year but cannot defend his title as he is currently injured after a snowboarding accident. However the field includes two current major champions in Darren Clarke (Open Championship) and Charl Schwartzel (US Masters). These players are joined by six other Major winners including Ernie Els and Retief Goosen.

The Fancourt course is a classic links layout, designed by Gary Player. As a coastal venue the weather could be a key factor but with a limited field tee times will not be so crucial as each player should play in similar conditions. The Fancourt course hosted the South Africa Open in 2005, won by Retief Goosen, and the Dimension Data Pro-Am for the last two years.

Goosen will have some backers but the South African player seems to have lost his winning mentality. He has started the last two events in South Africa well but faded over the weekend. Els is a former Open Champion and he has several other high finishes to his name in that Major. He has to be respected on a classic links course but that has been factored into his price.

Hennie Otto won the Dimension Data event in 2011 so is one of a small minority of players with course form. He also figured in the Dimension Data of the previous year, eventually finishing seven shots behind the winner. There are five par fives on the course and although driving will be key finding the greens in the correct number of shots will be important. Otto finished 30th for this skill last year which also saw him win his second Tour event at the South Africa Open.

Nicolas Colsaerts won the first time on the main Tour at the Volvo China Open in April. He had another ten top 10 finishes as he fulfilled the promise shown on the Challenge Tour. He finished inside the top 10 for driving distance last year which suggests he will have plenty of eagle and birdie chances this week. He also scored well for greens in regulation, a key skill if the wind blows.

Padraig Harrington has fallen to 89th in the world rankings after a poor three years. He has won the Open Championship twice in typical links conditions and he relishes the challenge presented by golf at the seaside. If he is to figure in a tournament in Europe it’s likely to be on one of the rare occasions when a links course is being used. He can apply his skills and experience to make the top 5 payout places.

Recommendations

1 point back Hennie Otto at 50.0.
1 point back Nicolas Colsaerts at 40.0.
2 points back Padraig Harrington Top 4 at 6.4.

Humana Challenge

Bill Haas can build on his excellent course form by contending for the Humana Challenge on the US Tour. Matt Kuchar has the game and personality to prosper in this pro-am event. Charles Howell is given another chance to build on his successful amateur career and win his third event on the main Tour.

This tournament has been known as the Bob Hope Classic for the last 47 years. This year it has a new title sponsor and format. The event has been played over 90 holes since it’s inception but this year it has been reduced to the conventional 72 holes with a Thursday start. The pros will be paired with an amateur for the first three rounds and the final round will be limited to professionals only.

The nature of the event means that you can identify players who relish the format. The more intense pros may not feel comfortable playing rounds over 6 hours with the company of an amateur to distract him from winning the tournament. The format is suited to the more gregarious, easy going individuals.

The rota of courses being used for the tournament has been reduced from four to three. All are par 72s and have regularly ranked amongst the easiest courses on the US Tour. In the last four years there have been four 61s and 14 62s. The weather forecast suggests it will be warm and dry and a birdie fest can be expected. The key skills will be hitting greens in regulation and holing a vast amount of putts.

The field is relatively strong for a pro-am event at this early stage of the season. Dustin Johnson is the highest ranked player at eight and he will have his backers this week. He does seem to be a relaxed kind of man but his price reflects his status and personality. Phil Mickelson is another player who can tolerate the vagaries of pro-am golf.

Haas is clearly comfortable at the venues and is not fazed by his amateur partners causing distractions. He’s made the cut on all seven occasions he has appeared at La Quinta. He lost in a play-off last season and won the event in 2010. Haas is the current FedEx Cup holder and banked 10 million dollars for winning that title. He finished 11th for greens in regulation last season and can contend this week with an obedient putter.

Kuchar finished runner-up in this tournament two years ago and was also tied 7th last year. He has made the cut with ease on four of his five most recent appearances. He was inside the top 20 for total putts in 2011 and also ranked in the top 30 for both strokes gained putting and birdie average. He can cope with the travails of his amateur partners and post another high finish in this tournament.

Howell came second in the Sony Open last week when he was just a few missed short putts from beginning his season with a win. He was 8th for strokes gained putting last year and scored well for scrambling which could be a key skill if he misses the greens. His course form is solid and he is another player who can perform under the unusual circumstances.

Recommendations

1 point back Bill Haas at 21.0.
1 point back Matt Kuchar at 18.0.
1 point back Charles Howell at 26.0.

This is the second week of this trial. We simply post the write up as received from the provider and will keep results accordingly.

Joburg Open

 

Retief Goosen has the form and ability to win the Joburg Open on the European Tour this week. Thomas Aiken is another player who has the right credentials to score well on the Royal Johannesburg and Kensington Golf Club that hosts this event for the fifth successive year. Tommy Fleetwood is a more speculative recommendation but the youngster from Southport could make the top 10 payout places.

 

The clear favourite for the tournament is Charl Schwartzel. The current Masters champion is priced at less than 4/1 but I wouldn’t be taking such a short price at this stage of the season. He is looking to follow the example of Louis Oosthuizen who won the Africa Open last week. Even at those cramped odds Schwartzel will have some backers as has won on this course in the last two years.

 

Schwartzel grew up near the course in Johannesburg and played the course many times as an amateur. The last few events of 2011 and the first event of 2012 went with the formbook and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he did win but I favour two of his compatriots at more realistic prices to make it consecutive victories on home soil.

 

The course is relatively long at 7592 yards and a par of 73. The fairways are generally about 20 yards in width and although the rough is not too punishing accuracy off the tee will be an important attribute this week. The greens are relatively fast so putting skills will also come into play.

 

Retief Goosen has the ideal profile in that he led the standings for total putts on the European Tour last season. He is also in the top 40 for driving accuracy. He has played in this event twice in the last four years and on both occasions finished eight shots off the pace. He made the top 5 payout places in the Africa Open last week in similar playing conditions and can improve on that effort this week.

 

Thomas Aiken won his first tournament in Europe last year and he is another player who will relish the local playing and weather conditions. He figured prominently in the Africa Open last week before dropping back over the weekend but still finished tied 14th which is a solid effort for the first outing of the year. He is in the top 30 for both driving accuracy and total putts so is skills profile suggests he can feature again in South Africa.

 

Tommy Fleetwood is a more speculative selection but the 20 year old looks good enough to at least finish inside the top 10. On a limited schedule last season Fleetwood finished in the top 20 for both driving accuracy and total putts. He also fulfilled the promise he showed as an amateur by becoming the youngest player to win the Challenge Tour rankings in 2011. At the end of his amateur career Fleetwood ranked number one in the Scratch Players World Amateur rankings. If he can produce that level of form this week a high finish is well within his capabilities

 

Recommendations

 

1 point back Retief Goosen at 12.5.

1 point back Thomas Aiken at 17.0.

2 points back Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 at 5.5.

 

Sony Open in Hawaii

 

Zach Johnson can win the Sony Open in Hawaii for the second time in his career at this year’s renewal on the US Tour. KJ Choi has some excellent course form in his locker and he can build on a decent effort last week. David Toms has the skills profile to make the top 10 payout places.

 

The tournament has been played at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulo at this slot in the calendar every year since 1999, except in 2002. This is a venue where course experience is vital. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last top 10 by a rookie. Weather can be factor as windy conditions are common.

 

Hitting fairways is a priority this week. In the last six years the course has ranked inside the three most difficult for driving accuracy on four occasions. Last year eight of the leading twelve on the final leaderboard finished inside the top 15 for accuracy off the tee. Putting and scrambling are also key attributes for success in Hawaii this week.

 

The field consists of 18 players who competed in the Tournament of Champions last week. Steve Stricker won that event and he has an excellent profile. He would be a leading pick if he had not won last week but he appeared to expend plenty of mental energy as he won his 12th tournament win on the US Tour.

 

Zach Johnson seems a viable alternative to the favourite as he combines course form and key skills. Johnson won this tournament in 2009 and has another top 10 to his name. He can be forgiven a missed cut last season and he opens his year after a promising end to 2011. He lost by one shot to Tiger Woods in the Chevron World Challenge in December, only beaten by two clutch birdie putts from Woods on the last two holes.

 

Accuracy off the tee is one of Johnson’s key skills and he was 8th in that category on the US Tour last season. He plays extremely methodically. When he won the US Masters in 2007 he laid up on all the five pars but still recorded 13 birdies over those 16 holes. Johnson also scored well for putting last year and that will be a useful skill on a course that is above average for strokes gained putting.

 

KJ Choi is another course winner who will relish the playing and weather conditions in Hawaii. He made the cut for five straight years before failing to make the weekend last year. He finished last week’s tournament with an eight under par round of 65 and if he can maintain such form he has a good chance of a repeat.

 

David Toms finished last but one in the Tournament of Champions last week. However, the host course was all about power over accuracy. The Waialae course is short by modern standards and that should suit Toms who finished inside the top 6 for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation last year.

.

Recommendations

 

1 point back Zack Johnson at 17.0.

1 point back KJ Choi at 17.0.

2 points back David Toms Top 10 at 4.50.

The trial consists of a detailed write up folowed by the recommended bets. The bets can be traded anytime during the event, however this is down to the individual and no advice on what price to exit is advised. You can just leave as straight bets. Each week I will publish the exact write up

Sergio Garcia can achieve the relatively rare feat of winning tournaments in consecutive weeks when he plays in the Andalucia Masters on the European Tour this week. He played in the Castellon Masters on his home course last week and totally dominated the event which he won by 11 shots.

 

That winning margin was the joint third biggest in the history of the European Tour. Garcia was the tournament host and it was thought that his commitments away from the course may hamper his chances. In the end he applied his local knowledge to play the four rounds in 27 under par.

 

The tour continues its Iberian swing at Valderrama in southern Spain. This course is often included in lists of the top 100 course in the world. It memorably hosted the Ryder Cup in 1997 when Seve Ballesteros’s captaincy inspired Europe to a famous win.

 

The annual tournament on this course was formerly known as the Volvo Masters. It was the end of season finale and was contested by the top 60 players in the Order of Merit. The Dubai world championship in December now assumes that role but Valderrama is such a good course that it was selected for this week’s tournament.

 

Luke Donald is scheduled to play in Dubai as he strives to become the first player to win the Money List and Order of Merit in the same year. He played superbly last Sunday to win the last event on the US Tour. His portfolio is missing a major championship but that must surely be the next move in an ever improving career.

 

The layout in Sotogrande just inland from the Costa del Soil is extremely demanding. It requires accuracy off the tee and sound iron play from the undulating fairways. The greens are large and undulating so the skills profile for potential winners is good driving accuracy and hitting the greens in regulation and sound putting when finding the greens in the correct number of shots.

 

Garcia has never won a tournament at Valderrama in each of its guises. He was second in 2004 when he lost in a play-off to Ian Poulter after a bogey at the first extra hole. He has finished just a shot behind the winner on two occasions and he has finished in the top 10 on four occasions.

 

If Garcia had played solidly lat week and finished in the top 10 I would be having no reservations in recommending him this week. The only negative is the difficulty in winning back to back but Garcia’s skills profile is such that I can’t leave him out of the staking plan. He is second for greens in regulation and scores well for driving accuracy and putts on greens hit in the correct number of shots.

 

Matteo Manassero also has a game based on accuracy from the tees and fairways, and he is also a sound putter. He has never competed at Valderrama but that hasn’t stopped him winning twice at course on his first sighting. He played solidly last week without getting near Garcia and his aptitudes can see him challenging for a third tour win.

 

Followers of this column will know I have often recommended Joost Luiten and I’m giving him another chance for a top five finish this week. He has had nine top 15s in Europe this season and he is another player who excels in accuracy rather than power. He won’t be fazed by the large greens and can match last year’s effort when he finished joint fifth.

 

Francesco Molinari is another consistently accurate player and I can see him contending this week. He has a solid bank of form at Valderrama and is a decent run of form. He didn’t play last week so returns after a break to a course ideally set up for the strengths of his game. However, he will have to be at his very best to beat Sergio.

 

Trading recommendations

 

1 point back Sergio Garcia at 8.0.

4 points lay Sergio Garcia at 2.0 (if matched).

1 point back Francesco Molinari at 28.0.

3 points lay Francesco Molinari at 5.0 (if matched).

0.5 points back Matteo Manassero at 36.0.

3 points lay Matteo Manassero at 6.0 (if matched)

1.5 points back Joost Luiten Top 5 at 6.6.

.

 

 

The trial consists of a detailed write up folowed by the recommended bets. The bets can be traded anytime during the event, however this is down to the individual and no advice on what price to exit is advised. You can just leave as straight bets. Each week I will publish the exact write up

Tour: Europe

Tournament: Portugal Masters

Course: Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal

Par: 72

Yardage: 7231 yards

Time difference: Same as GMT

 

Francesco Molinari has the right combination of current and course form to play well in the Portugal Masters on the European Tour. I’m giving Joost Luiten another chance but recommend a bet for him to finish in the top 5 so we collect if he goes close again. Padraig Harrington is showing signs of a return to form and he could well prosper at this level on the Victoria Golf Course in Vilamoura.

 

The strongest field in the five year history of the tournament will be assembled in Portugal. The entry list includes five major champions and 20 Ryder Cup players. The highest ranked player is Martin Kaymer at number six. Harrington has won three major championships and is joined by major champions John Daly, Paul Lawrie and Jose-Maria Olazabal.

 

Thomas Bjorn, Simon Dyson and Alexander Noren have each won more than one title in Europe this year and they will have their backers. However none of these players are in the top 50 for driving accuracy and total putts and these are the key skills required to score well this week.

 

The course on the Algarve has very large and undulating greens which puts decent putting at a premium. Two putting every green would be a fine achievement and there are going to be many par putts in the region of six to eight feet.

 

The fairways are of average width but there are a great deal of fairway bunkers. The long hitters can prosper on the generous fairways but accuracy off the tee will also be important if the sand hazards are to be avoided.

 

The rough is not very punishing so those that miss the fairway can still hit the greens in the correct number of shots. It’s probably better to find the forgiving rough of the tee rather than the fairway bunkers as long shots from sand can be extremely difficult. The course is very exposed and lakes come into play on seven of the holes, another factor in determining driving accuracy as a key skill.

 

Molinari is currently 4th in the latest standings for driving accuracy so has the skills to avoid the fairway bunkers. He is also just inside the top 50 for average putts per round. I can see the Italian putting the ball in the right place off the tee and not losing too many shots on the greens.

 

The selection has made the cut on his last three appearances in Vilamoura. His best effort was two years ago. He started with a 63 and completed his four rounds in 23 under. Only Lee Westwood went lower, by two shots, but the world number two is not competing this week. Molinari had a solid top 10 in Madrid last week and a continuation of that form and consistent putting could see him win his third European Tour title.

 

If you are a regular follower of this column you will know that Joost Luiten is a name that often crops up in the staking plan. He might be not quite ready to win but by recommending him to finish in the top 5 we collect if he has another near miss. Course form and current form are in his favour and he is in the top 20 for driving accuracy.

 

Padraig Harrington was third in this event two years ago so he can clearly handle the course. He played well at the recent Dunhill Links Championship and was just one shot too many for a top 5 finish, frustrating as I had suggested such a bet. He is the top 30 for total putts and I can see him holing his fair share this week. Good putting will be required on a course where the average winning score over the last four years has been 21 under par.

 

Trading Recommendations

 

2 points back Francesco Molinari at 16.5.

5 points lay Francesco Molinari at 4.0 (if matched).

1 point back Padraig Harrington at 26.0.

3 points lay Padraig Harrington 5.0 (if matched).

2 points back Joost Luiten Top 5 at 6.0.

 

Tour: United States

Tournament: The McGladry Classic

Course: Seaside Course, Sea Island, Georgia

Par: 70

Yardage: 7055 yards

Time difference: 5 hours behind of GMT

 

Webb Simpson needs to finish in the top 19 of the McGladrey Classic on the US Tour this week if he is to overtake Luke Donald in the Money List. I can see him being highly motivated to win the required amount of cash but also establish a substantial lead over Donald by winning the tournament.  Charles Howell has probably underachieved in terms of Tour wins but I can see him making the top 5 this week. David Toms is suited to the Seaside Course at Sea Island in Georgia that hosts the tournament for the second consecutive year and he has a good opportunity to win his 14th title on the US Tour.

 

Sea Island Golf Club is an ocean-side, links course that places a premium on careful shot selection, recovery and putting. It is the most demanding layout of the resort’s several courses. It is relatively short at 7055 yards and has a par of 70 that includes just two par 5s.

 

The course ranked as the fifth-easiest par 70 on its debut last year with a scoring average of 69.4. The large greens were the sixth least challenging greens to hit in regulation. Golfers averaged over 75% for hitting greens in the correct number of shots. However, accurate driving made it easier to find the green in the regulation number of strokes.

 

This tournament is a Fall Series event and generally attracts players who are trying to earn enough money to keep their card and playing privileges for next year. However it has attracted winners of 15 tournaments in the United States this year and 15 major champions. Matt Kuchar is the highest world ranked player at 9.

 

Simpson is the next best in the latest standings at number twelve. He has a great chance to earn some ranking points this week and overtake Donald on the Money List. If Simpson does have a high finish there is a good chance that he and Donald will enter the last tournament of the regular season next week. Donald looks just about assured of winning the Order of Merit and no player has ever won that title and the Money List in the same season.

 

Simpson has not played since the Tour Championship three weeks ago. He has had 10 top 10s this year and is first in the all round ranking. The winner of the Money List earns a five year exemption and I can see Simpson going a long way to achieving just that in Georgia. He has course form, current form and appears in the top 40 for the two key skills so all the data points to a third win of the year for Simpson.

 

Charles Howell was identified several years ago as somebody who could match up with Tiger Woods. His early promise did not materialise and he still doesn’t win as often as his talent deserves. He has two titles to his name but has finished second or third on nineteen occasions. I suggest backing him to finish in the top 5 so if he falters when in contention we can collect on a winning bet. He holds the course record at Sea Island. He finished sixth in the Tour Championship and in the same position in this tournament last year. His excellent iron play could see him make the payout places this week.

 

David Toms tied for third place at this tournament last year. He finished inside the top 10 for hitting greens in regulation and putting, the key skills required to prosper this week. He qualified for the four FedEx Cup events and finished 16th in the Tour Championship finale. His accuracy should give him plenty of birdie opportunities and given an obedient putter he can get in contention over the weekend.

 

Trading Recommendations

 

2 points back Webb Simpson at 16.0.

5 points lay Webb Simpson 4.0 (if matched).

1 point win David toms at 28.0.

3 points lay David toms at 6.0 (if matched).

2 points Top 5 Charles Howell at 6.5.

 

The trial consists of a detailed write up folowed by the recommended bets. The bets can be traded anytime during the event, however this is down to the individual and no advice on what price to exit is advised. You can just leave as straight bets. Each week I will publish the exact write up I receive.

Tiger Woods can show that his tournament winning days are not behind him by competing successfully in the Frys.com Open this week on the US tour. Chad Campbell has the right combination of course form and current form to figure this week at the CordeValle Golf Club in California which hosts the tournament for the second successive year. Spencer Levin is playing consistently well this season and can record another top 5 finish.

 

CordeValle has a par of 71. In its debut last year it played just 0.01 strokes over par and ranked in the middle of the pack for scoring on courses used on the tour. It was eighth most difficult in strokes gained putting. The greens are huge so even when hitting approach shots from off the fairway pars and birdies are likely.

 

The course requires decent course management and strategy. It is below average in length so the key disciplines for scoring well are driving accuracy and hitting the greens in the regulation number of shots. Those skills will become even more critical if the forecast swirling wind materialises.

 

This is the second tournament in the Fall Series. After the mega bucks Play-Off Series the fall events are all about earning enough money to keep your card and playing privileges for next year. One good week can transform a season but pressure will be severe for players who know they need a good week to maintain their livelihood for 2012.

 

Woods has slipped outside the top 50 in the world rankings for the first time since 1996. In his prime he would be fancied to beat this field with something in hand and at the odds available I’m banking on a return to form for the former world number one. He has been playing well in practice apparently and has a new caddie to freshen things up a little.

 

The selection is looking to find some form ahead of the President’s Cup in November. He has been selected to represent the States in that event as a wildcard. He added this week’s tournament to his schedule after failing to qualify for the FedEx Cup play-offs. There have been many positive vibes coming from the Woods’ camp and I’m backing him to win a tournament for the first time since November 2009.

 

Chad Campbell is third in the latest standings for finding the greens in the correct number of strokes. He has made his last five cuts, including in three tournaments that fell within the Play-Off Series. Campbell had a top 20 finish on the course last year. He was tied twenty third last week when he played his final 42 holes in bogey-free 11 under.

 

Spencer Levin is playing close to his home course and will probably be commuting from home this week. He was tied 5th last week and seemed very positive about the all aspects of his game. That was his fifth top 10 of the year and his aptitude for hitting greens in regulation gives him an opportunity to add to that tally.

 

Alvaro Quiros is statistically the longest hitter on the European Tour and can use that skill for a second win of the season at this week’s Madrid Masters. Matteo Manassero is the eighteen old Italian who has already won twice in Europe and at this level has a good opportunity to add to his tally. Lorenzo Gagli is another emerging talent from Italy and he has the form to record a top 10 this week.

 

World number one Luke Donald is looking for a successful title defence to build on his lead in the Race to Dubai. He is trying to become the first player to win both the Order of Merit and Money List. His attendance in Madrid may be a surprise to many but victory last year in this tournament launched him on a run of form that took him to number one in the world.

 

This year the tournament is being held for the first time at El Encin Golf Hotel. It has been described as a great course with undulating greens and superb bunkering. It is above average in length so driving distance is important to score well. However, the sand and water hazards mean accuracy approaching the greens is another important attribute.

 

The tournament has a history of providing big priced winners and long odds players making the payout places. This may well be because the tournament is played late in the year when many of the better players are now resting whereas many others need a good performance to secure their card.

 

Donald is the only player in the top 25 of the world rankings competing in Madrid this week. Simon Dyson is the next highest ranked player at 28. Both these players are having great seasons but at the prices available are opposable after a busy schedule and some high pressure golf.

 

Quiros won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year. He has risen to a career high ranking of 41 which means he has secured invitations to the majors and golf World Championship events. On a relatively long course he has a distinct advantage but it’s significant that he is also in the top 50 for greens in regulation.

 

Manassero is in the top 15 for both driving distance and GIR, a rare combination of skills. In a relatively weak field the precocious Italian has a good opportunity for a third tour win. He is the youngest player to get inside the top 50 in the world rankings and can continue that progress by playing well this week.

 

Compatriot Lorenzo Gagli has been a regular feature of leaderboards this year. He’s made four cuts from his latest five tournaments. He had top 10s at the Czech Open and Irish Open and he can match those finishes this week in a field without much strength in depth beyond Donald and Dyson. Gagli is fifth for greens in regulation so he can apply that skill to plot his way around a course that demands accuracy from the fairways.

 

Trading Recommendations

 

Frys.com Open

 

3 points win Tiger Woods at 8.0

8 points lay Tiger Woods at 2.5

2 points win Chad Campbell at 40.0

12 points lay Chad Campbell at 3.0

2 points Top 5 Spencer Levin at 6.2

 

Madrid Masters

 

2 points win Alvaro Quiros at 32.0

15 points lay Alvaro Quiros at 3.0

3 points back Matteo Manassero at 23.0

15 points lay Matteo Manassero at 4.0

3 points Top 10 Lorenzo Gagli at 4.6

The trial consists of a detailed write up folowed by the recommended bets. The bets can be traded anytime during the event, however this is down to the individual and no advice on what price to exit is advised. You can just leave as straight bets. Each week I will publish the exact write up I receive.

Simon Dyson is in the best form of his life and he can continue his progress up the world rankings by contending at the Dunhill Links Championship this week. Padraig Harrington is returning to the place of former glories and after positive signs last week he is advised to finish in the top 5 in a tournament being staged at St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. I’m giving Joost Luiten another chance and recommending him for a top 10 finish again.

 

This is a complex tournament played over the three courses mentioned above on the east coast of Scotland. It is the only pro-am played on the European Tour. Teams of one pro and one amateur play each course in rotation over the first three days. A cut is then made after which the top 60 professionals and the top 20 teams progress to play the final round at St Andrews.

 

The Old Course at St Andrews is the easiest course with wide open fairways. The 17th, the road hole, is arguably the most famous hole in world golf. It is a tough a par four you could find anywhere and always plays above par when The Open is staged at the home of golf. There are only two par 3s and two par 5s but several of the middle length holes are reachable if the wind is blowing in the right direction.

 

Carnoustie is another classic links course which last staged the Open in 2007. It has just two par 5s and three par 3s. Kingsbarns is a highly regarded course exposed to the wind. There is the usual quota of par 3s and par 5s in a total par of 72.

 

The logistical nightmare of a tournament is now a well established event. It often plays a major role in determining the Order of Merit winner. Inevitably luck can play a big part in this tournament as a player can get the worst of the weather one day and then find his rivals face the same course in benign conditions just 24 hours later.

 

It is an advantage to play St Andrews on Saturday so that a player can carry forward a feel for the course into the final round. Playing that course on day one seems to be a disadvantage but regardless of the rotation weather is a key element at this time of year. There are always local climate variations but the forecast for the area looks excellent with no appreciable wind and rain forecast just on Sunday.

 

While a whole host of sport, film and television celebrities test their skills on the three courses in Scotland the pros will be aiming to win one of the most prestigious events on the calendar. Martin Kaymer will defend the title he won 12 months ago amongst five of the top six in the world rankings, including the German himself.

 

For Harrington the tournament will represent another opportunity to test his new swing in tournament conditions. He has said how much he loves the format of the event. He believes the company of an amateur will keep the complex swing processes out of his head. He can chat to his amateur partner and he is not fazed by the long rounds which are a feature of the event.

 

He is a proven links player having won this tournament in 2006 and the Open at Carnoustie the following year. He made the cut at the Austrian Open last week, without getting in contention. However, he showed enough to have a good week in Scotland. I don’t think he’s ready to win again but a top 5 finish is well within his capabilities.

 

My idea of the winner is Simon Dyson who is the type of carefree bloke to relish partnering some major or minor celebrity. He wouldn’t seem out of place in Strictly Come Dancing or I’m a Celebrity. However, there is more than a fun loving persona to this player. He has won two tournaments this year and now stands at a career high 30 in the world rankings.

 

Dyson won this tournament in 2009 and had another top 5 finish last year. He is clearly suited to the format and course conditions and will have no reservations if this turns into a putting contest. The gregarious Yorkshireman has everything in his favour this week and he may well record another win.

 

Joost Luiten is a regular feature of my tournament analysis. He was advised last week and was only a five foot putt away from making a playoff. The quality of the field this week has much greater depth than last week’s entry list in Austria. Luiten will win a tournament over the next two years but maybe not this week. However, he is playing well enough to record another top 10 finish.

 

Nick Watney is the class act in this week’s Justin Timberlake Shriners Open on the US Tour and can’t be left out of the staking plan. Martin Laird is a former winner and runner-up so he can’t be ignored on a course that is clearly well suited to his game. Ryan Moore played well in the FedEx Cup play-off series and is another player with positive memories of the course.

 

After the multi-million pound purses in the play-off series we now enter the Fall events. Most of the leading players will be out of action for several weeks so it’s a surprise to see Watney in the field. Players will be competing to earn enough money to keep their card and playing privileges for next year.

 

The tournament has had six name changes over the years but has always been staged at the TPC course at Summerlin near Las Vegas. Despite changes to the course and reduction of par this tournament generally develps into a putting contest. Summerlin has been the easiest pat 71 on tour for the last two years.

 

The course features large greens so there is a premium on putting. The greens have ranked inside the top five easiest to hit in regulation since 2008. This event will be a shoot-out and it has produced several first time winners. When Jonathan Byrd won last year he ended a streak of six consecutive maiden winners, four of which were rookies.

 

The course’s only defence against low scoring can be some wind. However, the temperatures are forecast to rise into the nineties, with only moderate wind and a slight threat of rain. The average winning score over the last six years is 22 under, a very high number for a par 71 layout.

 

Watney can have hot streaks with the putter. He has already played a back nine in 27 strokes which helped him win the AT & T National in July. He has also won a World Golf Championship event this year and now stands at number 11 in the world rankings. He is the only player in the top 30 in the latest world standings competing this week.

 

Martin Laird lost in the play-off to Byrd last year when the latter player had a hole in one to clinch the title. Laird has averaged 66 strokes in his last eight rounds at Summerlin and he has no better record on any other course on the schedule.

 

The selection played in the four play-off events so he’s obviously in decent form. He never really got in contention over the last four weeks but played well enough to qualify for the Tour Championship, open to just the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings.

 

George McNeil may not be a familiar name but his form on this week’s course is exemplary. He won the tournament in 2007 and has top 15s in each of his four appearances at Summerlin. He has had four top 10s this season and finished second on two occasions. He looks likely to get in the mix again and another top 10 finish is the least of his capabilities this week.

 

Staking Plan

 

Dunhill Links Championship

 

2 points win Simon Dyson at 24.0

2 points Top 5 Padraig Harrington 14.0

2 points Top 10 Joost Luiten 4.6

 

JT Shriners Open

 

3 points win Nick Watney at 12.5

2 points win Ryan Moore at 16.0

2 points Top 10 George McNeil at 4.7